CHARACTERIZING UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES WITH THE RESTRICTED HT TRANSFORMATION

Restrictions on the hyperbolic trigonometric (HT) transformation are imposed to guarantee that a probability density function is obtained from the maximum likelihood estimation. Performance of the restricted HT transformation using data generated from normal, beta, gamma, logistic, log-normal, Pareto, Weibull, order statistic, and bimodal populations is investigated via sampling experiments. Results suggest that the restricted HT transformaltion is sufficiently flexible to compete with the actual population distributions in most cases. Application of the restricted HT transformation is illustrated by characterizing uncertain net income per acre for community-supported agriculture farms in the northeastern United States.farm management, hyperbolic trigonometric transformation, uncertainty, Farm Management, C2, Q1,

APPLICATION OF THE ECONOMIC THRESHOLD FOR INTERSEASONAL PEST CONTROL

We show how an interseasonal pest control problem can be simplified to enable an intraseasonal model to be empirically applied, extending the range of application of the intraseasonal model. Three alternative economic thresholds are compared. The optimal solution requires repeated computations by the farmer to compute the profit maximizing dose, with a corresponding threshold, for each pest infestation. Two alternative decision rules require a single computation by the farmer for the threshold and dosage rate. An empirical illustration shows that, relative to the optimal solution which is computationally burdensome to the farmer, little net revenue is lost by using one of the thresholds based upon a simpler decision rule.Farm Management,

Prioritizing Invasive Species Threats Under Uncertainty

Prioritizing exotic or invasive pest threats in terms of agricultural, environmental, or human health damages is an important resource allocation issue for programs charged with preventing or responding to the entry of such organisms. Under extreme uncertainty, program managers may decide to research the severity of threats, develop prevention or control actions, and estimate cost-effectiveness in order to provide better information and more options when making decisions to choose strategies for specific pests. We examine decision rules based on the minimax and relative cost criteria in order to express a cautious approach for decisions regarding severe, irreversible consequences, discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these rules, examine the roles of simple rules and sophisticated analyses in decision making, and apply a simple rule to develop a list of priority plant pests.invasive species, decision criteria, uncertainty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COTTON INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES: REPLY

Crop Production/Industries,

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COTTON INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Crop Production/Industries,

POPULAR INFORMATIONAL PRIORITIES IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION

Due to agriculture's increasingly complex technical and economic environment, the diversity of information required for competitive and profitable farming is growing as never before. With constant and, in some cases, reduced resources for agricultural programs, Extension must exercise special care in prioritizing informational efforts to best meet farm-client needs and retain an important base of public support. This paper presents a method of identifying popular informational priorities in Agricultural Extension. The method is illustrated by application to dairy programming in Massachusetts.Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

STOCHASTIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF COMMUNITY-SUPPORTED AGRICULTURE CORE MANAGEMENT OPTIONS

The continued decline in both the number of and the acreage in small-scale farms and rural communities, as well as food safety and environmental concerns, has heightened interest in the community-supported agriculture (CSA) concept. Mean-variance, stochastic dominance, mean-Gini, and exponential utility/moment-generating function approaches to stochastic efficiency are employed to analyze three years of farm survey data on core management options for CSA farms. The core concept yields higher net income per acre than non-core management and, based on the stochastic efficiency analysis, should be regarded as the preferred management option for many CSA operators.Agribusiness,

Inspections To Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty

Protecting against terrorist attacks requires making decisions in a world in which attack probabilities are largely unknown. The potential for very large losses encourages a conservative perspective, in particular toward decisions that are robust. But robustness, in the sense of assurance against extreme outcomes, ordinarily is not the only desideratum in uncertain environments. We adopt Yakov Ben-Haim’s (2001b) model of information gap decision making to investigate the problem of inspecting a number of similar targets when one of the targets may be attacked, but with unknown probability. We apply this to a problem of inspecting a sample of incoming shipping containers for a terrorist weapon. While it is always possible to lower the risk of a successful attack by inspecting more vessels, we show that robustness against the failure to guarantee a minimum level of expected utility might not be monotonic. Robustness modeling based on expected utility and incorporating inspection costs yields decision protocols that are a useful alternative to traditional risk analysis.Terrorism, Robustness, Severe Uncertainty, Port Security

ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS UNDER UNCERTAINTY WITH APPLICATION TO CORN NEMATODE MANAGEMENT

An economic threshold of agricultural pest management is derived. Results provide a method for researchers to use in making improved pest control recommendations to farmers without farm level decision-making. An empirical illustration for lesion nematode management in irrigated corn is given and directions for further research are indicated.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,